FD2208 - Extreme Event Recognition Phase II

Theme:Strategy and Policy Development
Project status:Completed
Start date:01/01/2004
End date:31/03/2006
  • Environmental Protection,
  • Flood and Coastal Defence,
  • Forecasting,
  • Land,
  • Flood Defence
  • Meteorological Office, United Kingdom


The study has provided an opportunity to explore research areas that could produce improved flood warning lead times, investigating viable hypotheses and current gaps in research. Although not all the approaches looked at in this work resulted in a significant advance in the forecasting of extreme events, the findings have given direction to those areas where further research is most likely to succeed and those that will not.

The reports are particularly applicable to researchers and other interested parties, they inform them on how this project has progressed the body of scientific knowledge on extreme rainfall events.


Routine analysis of new extreme events to test their fit with the proposed conceptual model identified in Phase I. (Year 1). Development of a prototype 24 hour extreme event warning system for use with the Met Office NWP outputs, testing the viability of the extreme flood potential scoring system in practice to identify potential applications and development of flood forecasting model calibration techniques that can utilise the extreme event rainfall profiles for `destruction testing` of catchment models. (Years 2 & 3)



Phase I of this project identified some key criteria involved in causing extreme rainfall and hence the potential for severe flooding. Further work is required to develop the findings into mainstream forecasting systems to improve our capability to predict extreme rainfall and give advance warning of potential severe flood events