SC130009 - Making better use of local and historic data and estimating the uncertainty in FEH design flood estimation

Theme:Incident Management & Modelling
Project status:Completed
Start date:26/09/2014
End date:14/03/2017
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PROJECT SUMMARY

This research project has developed methods and guidance to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimation through the incorporation of local data.


Flood frequency estimates (also known as design flood estimates) are associated with many sources of uncertainty.  These hydrological uncertainties are often the most uncertain component in any flood risk assessment.  As a result there is considerable benefit from any reduction in the uncertainty of flood frequency estimation.

One way to reduce uncertainty is to incorporate complementary local data to refine the results from generalised Flood Estimation Handbook (FEH) methods.  Examples of local data include short or uncertain flow records, long-term flood history (documentary and palaeoflood records), river level records and information obtained from field visits.  This project shows how local data can be found and used to reduce uncertainty in flood estimation.