FD2901 - Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Scoping Study

Theme:Strategy and Policy Development
Project status:Completed
Start date:01/07/2006
End date:31/05/2007
  • Environmental Protection,
  • Forecasting,
  • Flood and Coastal Defence,
  • Land,
  • Flood Defence
  • Atkins Environment


This report covered sources of uncertainty in the flood forecasting process, current approaches within the Environment Agency to assessing uncertainty in flood forecasts, international research on ensemble flood forecasting techniques, possible applications of decision support systems, and risk based forecasting techniques in other (non-water) sectors. The outputs from this project will help to inform Defra and the Environment Agency in developing a plan for bringing this important development into operational use over the next few years. Summary Objective: To monitor and support external research in order to identify and scope a development programme for the introduction of probabilistic forecasting to the Agency. Key Customer Purpose: The developments in dealing with uncertainty in forecasting need to be related to systems operated by the Agency in order to plan for integration with operational plans and budgets to ensure effective implementation. This will be a major system development and it is essential that work is undertaken to link to ongoing external R&D programmes and to identify the size, specification and cost of the full project.