FD2210 - Modelling extreme rainfall events

Theme:Strategy and Policy Development
Project status:Completed
Start date:01/11/2005
End date:31/10/2007
  • Forecasting,
  • Land,
  • Environmental Protection,
  • Flood and Coastal Defence,
  • Flood Defence
  • Meteorological Office, United Kingdom


The project Technical Report


“Modelling Extreme Rainfall Events” forms a comprehensive account of the work undertaken and the key results. This report makes recommendations that will be used to inform future research and development projects and strategies. It also describes the relationship between this project and other work in the same area within the UK and Europe. This research has progressed the body of scientific knowledge about the nature of extreme rainfall events in the UK, the ability of current state-of-the art Numerical Weather Prediction models to forecast them as well as new approaches for presenting and assessing the forecast output. Results were included in the government commissioned report ‘Learning lessons from the 2007 floods’ by Sir Michael Pitt.


Simulate a selection of extreme (1:100yr) rainfall events using the convective scale NWP model. Assess the ability of the model to reproduce the observed precipitation in each case. Assess the ability of the model to reproduce features identified in the Extreme Event Recognition project as having contributed to the extreme nature of each storm. Identify the causes of shortcomings in each simulation and propose possible solutions. Synthesise the results, draw conclusions on the predictability of extreme rainfall events using a convective scale model, and make recommendations on further work that could increase their predictability. KEY


to assess and optimize the ability of the next generation Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model to predict extreme rainfall events.